This past college football championship suffered from Alabama-Clemson fatigue, according to most fans. But not just because these were the same teams that reached the finals in 3 out of the last 4 championship games. The fatigue comes from the constant second guessing of who's worthy, deserving, best, etc. and fatigue from the subjective selection process that once again, left us wanting. So I am joining everyone else who is proposing a way to fix the college football post season. And I'll promise you, it's better than anything Joel Klatt may propose.
Besides dealing with the problem of the mere existence of such a thing as a playoff committee, we also have to deal with the following,
Besides dealing with the problem of the mere existence of such a thing as a playoff committee, we also have to deal with the following,
1. Bowl games that don't mean anything anymore.
2. Ranking order controversies every week.
3. Players skipping out bowl games.
4. Comparing teams with exact records and similar opponents.
5. Determining conference strength without bringing up ancient history, opinion or "what could've been."
The truth is, determining a champion out of 120+ teams, spread over a number of conferences with different makeups and strength, limited to 12-14 games sounds incredibly difficult. Difficult, but not impossible.
There is a very popular system that already handles this very same situation, in another sport, with clear cut rules so every team, no matter what conference they belong to, no matter what their financial situation is, or access to the best players, knows exactly what they need to do in order to play in the big leagues.
There is a very popular system that already handles this very same situation, in another sport, with clear cut rules so every team, no matter what conference they belong to, no matter what their financial situation is, or access to the best players, knows exactly what they need to do in order to play in the big leagues.
Look no further than the UEFA Champions League (UCL).
The UCL manages to figure out who the best club team in Europe is across 55 "conferences." How do you compare national leagues; for example the Spanish "La Liga" versus the Turkish Super League? Well, they establish power rankings among the leagues based on the performances each team has had in the tournament. These "conference" rankings are determined by field performance by team representatives in said tournament.
How can this be related to the CFP? Let's take a crack at it.
The Setup
In order for this to work we must first make a few assumptions,
1. No more divisions. All teams are now part of one conference and they play each other in a round robin format to determine its champion, regular season capped at 9 games, each conference can choose the schedule, give home field advantage to whoever the conference decides.
2. No Independents, they must either form their own conference or join an existing one.3. No out of conference regular season games, that's what the playoffs are for.
4. No conference championship games, a round robin will determine the conference champion, with head-to-head result being the tie-breaker.
5. Bowl games will be restructured as playoff games.
This will leave us with the following conferences in order of strength, as the experts claim them, along with what this new UCL-like system would assign each conference as far as power ranking factor, power ranking points and number of participants in the post season.
1. SEC (1 - 100 - 3).
2. ACC (0.9 - 90 - 3).
3. Big Ten (0.8 - 80 - 2).
4. Big 12 (0.7 - 70 - 2).
5. Pac 12 (0.6 - 60 - 1).
6. AAC (0.5 - 50 - 1).
7. Mountain West (0.4 - 40 - 1).
8. Conference USA (0.3 - 30 - 1).
9. Sun Belt (0.2 - 20 - 1).
10. Mid American (0.1 - 10 - 1).
Let's assume that this is the conference pecking order the first time this system is implemented, and of course, it will change throughout the years, I will show you how further down in this post.
If this system were to be implemented as the 2018 regular season ended, the playoffs and seeding would look like this,
SEC: 1. Alabama 2. Georgia 3. Florida.
ACC: 4. Clemson 5. Syracuse 6. Pittsburgh.
Big 10: 7. Ohio State 8. Michigan (or Notre Dame is they join the Big 10).
Big XII: 9. Oklahoma 10. Texas (or ND if they join this conference instead).
Pac 12: 11. Washington.
AAC: 12. UCF.
Mountain West: 13. Fresno State.
Conference USA: 14. UAB.
Sun Belt: 15. App State.
Mid American: 16. Buffalo.
Playoff Bracket
Yes, this will set up a 16-team playoff in order to determine the National Champion. But, since now the regular season is limited to conference only games and scraps the conference championship game, schools only have a 9-game regular season. Less toll on unpaid college students, not to mention their regular season ends on thanksgiving weekend, freeing them up to focus on finals, instead of preparing for a meaningless bowl game, unless they qualify for the post season, because it's academics what the NCAA really cares about, right?The top team or teams from each conference will move on to the post season. The Round of 16 replaces the now conference championship weekend usually played in that first weekend in December, and the lowest seeding team will host each game. Yes, the first playoff round will happen all over college towns, rewarding the fans that have supported their teams all season long. There will be 6 games remaining before the final.
The former NY6 Bowl games will now become the sites for the quarter final as well as the semifinal matches. The lowest seeded quarter finalist chooses a bowl game as their venue for their quarterfinal. This will happen 2 weeks after the round of 16 to allow for preparations. Second lowest seeded team, chooses after, and so on. Lowest seeded semifinalist chooses first from the remaining 2 NY6 bowls for their venue, these 2 games will occur a week after the quarter finals. The final can be rotated around multiple venues around the country, chosen by the committee, you know, so they have something constructive to do. This game may take place on Jan 1st, maybe a week later, run your numbers and figure out what works, I've already fixed everything else.
Conference Rankings (Skip to "How it Plays Out" if Math confuses you)
Not only will this system determine more accurately who the National Champion is once and for all, but also allow all conferences to showcase their power and even influence what the pecking order is across all of college football. This system also allows for powerful teams with less that perfect seasons to compete, alongside with less than powerful teams with perfect records and find out how the stack against the traditionally blue chip programs. Let's revisit the conference rankings,
1. SEC (1 - 100 - 3)2. ACC (0.9 - 90 - 3)
3. Big Ten (0.8 - 80 - 2)
4. Big 12 (0.7 - 70 - 2)
5. Pac 12 (0.6 - 60 - 1)
6. AAC (0.5 - 50 - 1)
7. Mountain West (0.4 - 40 - 1)
8. Conference USA (0.3 - 30 - 1)
9. Sun Belt (0.2 - 20 - 1)
10. Mid American (0.1 - 10 - 1)
The table above shows the initial conference power rankings along with the starting allotment of conference points and number of post season participants. These points are added or subtracted by team performance during the playoffs, nothing more.
For example, the SEC would have 3 teams representing their conference during the playoffs, and victories win and add points for their conference to confirm them as the most powerful in all of college football. The ACC will also have 3 teams, trying to make even deeper runs in the playoffs to win more points than the SEC and upset the pecking order. So do the lower ranked conferences, they have less teams but because of the conference factors, victories will win more points for their conference because they are beating more powerful opponents. Yes, if the Mid American team beats an SEC opponent, they will win more points for their conference, than the SEC team will if the SEC team defeats the Mid American team as expected.
In fact, if the Mid American team manages to only lose by a close margin, they can in fact win more points for their conference than the SEC team does for defeating them by a close score, perhaps winning enough points to move their conference up in the rankings, and even increase the number of teams that qualify for the post season the following year. Yes, if the Big 10 wins enough conference points, they can overtake the ACC and they would have 3 Big 10 teams represented in the post season and decrease to 2 ACC teams represented instead. Here comes the math part.
If you are already familiar with the UEFA, or even FIFA ranking points system, the next section will be very similar except instead of rating individual teams, we are only ranking conferences.
The Math Part
Let's define a few terms,Conference Ranking: Simple, how the conference ranks in the power structure in all of Div. I college football.
Conference Points: Points conference participants earn or lose during playoff participation. These are accumulated from season to season.
Conference Factor: Factor assigned which becomes a multiplier for game results when calculating conference points when teams play each other from different conferences.During playoff games, each team, besides winning games to make it to the national championship game, wins or loses points for their conferences based on the following,
How to win Conference Points
1. Win.Yes, if you win, you win 1 conference point for your conference, very simple, if you make it all the way to the finals, meaning you win 4 games, you win 4 points for your conference throughout the process.
2. Conference Factor.
The seeding for the tournament is very predictable. The SEC (or highest ranked conference) champion will play the Mid-American (or lowest ranked conference) Champion who will always be the 16th seeded team. So let's use this as an example. This first round playoff game will feature Alabama vs Buffalo. If Alabama defeats Buffalo, they win 0.1 conference points for their conference. If Buffalo defeats Alabama, Buffalo wins 1 conference point for their conference, and Alabama loses its own conference factor in points 1. Only the team from the high ranked conference can lose conference factor points. Pretty straightforward.
3. Away Team Victory.
An additional 0.5 points will be added to the visiting team if they manage to win. Even simpler.
4. Point Differential.
This is where the math comes into play. Every playoff matchup between teams from different conferences will be assessed using this point differential, or the expected score differential based on conference power rankings. The formula is a bit complicated. Calculate the difference in conference factors, multiply them by 10 and that's the number of scores the team from the high ranked conference must beat lower ranked conference opponent by. Between Alabama and Buffalo, the conference factor difference is 0.9x10=9. The point differential is 9, or 9 scores. In other words, Alabama must defeat Buffalo by (+63) points in order to win an additional point for their conference. This has nothing to do with the odds spreads, but it works similarly. See the example below,
Alabama 50 x Buffalo 3 | 50-3 = +47, 47/63 = 0.74<1 therefore Alabama cannot win the point differential aggregate, since they are expected to win this game. However, Buffalo wins 47/63 = 0.74 1-0.74 = 0.26 conference points for the Mid-American, for keeping Alabama from "covering their spread."
If the lower ranked conference team wins, the results are different,
Alabama 10 x Buffalo 14 | 10-14 = -4, -4/63 = -0.06, therefore Alabama loses (1-0.06 = 0.94) 0.94 conference points. Buffalo wins big for their conference, 1+0.06 = 1.06 conference points for the Mid-American.
The concept is that the favored conference, since it's expected to dominate their opponent, wins proportionately less points for their conference. Being able to keep up with an opponent from a stronger conference, doesn't necessarily help the team, but it can add conference points to their conference.
4. Advancing in the Tournament.
These are less complicated. 0.25 points for advancing to the quarter finals. 0.5 points for advancing to the semi finals. 1 point for advancing to the championship game and 10 points for winning the national championship. Again, these points are only awarded to conference. However, each conference will most likely keep track of how many conference points each team contributed to the conference over the years, for record purposes, ranking purposes or whatever they choose to.
So the national champion will add 0.25+0.5+1+10 = 11.75 conference points to their conference. That may not seem like much to the SEC who already begins with 100 points, but that's the point, for the lower ranked conferences, this represents a huge boost for their conference, maybe improving a position or 2 in the conference rankings, but not too big of a boost in order to upset the entire power rankings just because of a fluke year.
How it Plays Out
Let's take Clemson's national championship run from 2018 as an example and compare it against the assumptions made above.As the ACC champion, Clemson automatically becomes the No. 4 seed for the tournament. For the round of 16, they avoid all SEC teams until the Semis at the very least. As the number 4 seed they would play the No. 13 seed, Fresno State from the Mountain West. On paper this is an easy matchup for them, and they continue on to play the winner between the 5th and 12th seeds, Syracuse or UCF respectively. Now, Clemson has an interesting quarter final matchup with either a conference rival or undefeated UCF. Again, on paper, it is very difficult to believe that they cannot beat either team, so they would advance to the semifinals. Now we have a semi final matchup against, most likely, Alabama. If 2018 history taught us anything, Clemson would defeat Alabama in this semifinal, waiting for their finals rival, most likely the survivor between Georgia, Ohio State or maybe even Florida. For arguments' sake, it's Georgia and Clemson defeats them in the national championship, going 13-0 for the season. How does it compare to what actually happened?
Actual 2018 Clemson Schedule (15 games)
Furman
Texas A&M
Georgia Southern
Georgia Tech
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Bye
NC State
Florida State
Louisville
Boston College
Duke
South Carolina
Pittsburgh (champ.)
Notre Dame (semi final)
Alabama (final)
Modified 2018 Clemson Schedule (13 games, conference play only)
Virginia Tech
Florida State
Virginia
Boston College
Miami
Bye
NC State
Georgia Tech
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
Fresno State (round of 16)
UCF (quarter finals)
Alabama (semifinals)
Georgia (finals)
The latter has 2 less games, but it's a stronger schedule towards the end of the season, as it should be for a champion, it clearly resolves the strength of each team within the ACC (no more divisions) in a manner that has meaning in the national stage, as the top 3 teams from this conference qualify for the playoffs. And their last 4 games of the season actually involve high stakes because the national championship is on the line not just for Clemson, but for each of their rivals along the way. Even though we are trading relatively decent opposition in favor of Fresno State, this would be a better matchup. On paper, it may not look like much, but don't you think that Fresno State will not be 10 times more motivated to put on a great performance now that they know that they are only 4 games away from a national championship as opposed to playing an irrelevant Las Vegas bowl in mid-December playing for zero stakes?
And not only does Clemson win the national championship, but on the way, they manage to let Fresno State get a taste of what a championship team and atmosphere is like when they travel to South Carolina for that round of 16 matchup. They finally give undefeated UCF a taste of what playing the elites is like, they beat Alabama, and beat a Georgia team that most likely had a semifinal showdown against the Florida Gators. Tell me, after reading this very possible championship scenario, would you trade it for Clemson v Notre Dame? Do you prefer the zero stakes regular season matchups against Furman? Georgia Southern?
And not only does Clemson win the national championship, but on the way, they manage to let Fresno State get a taste of what a championship team and atmosphere is like when they travel to South Carolina for that round of 16 matchup. They finally give undefeated UCF a taste of what playing the elites is like, they beat Alabama, and beat a Georgia team that most likely had a semifinal showdown against the Florida Gators. Tell me, after reading this very possible championship scenario, would you trade it for Clemson v Notre Dame? Do you prefer the zero stakes regular season matchups against Furman? Georgia Southern?
The Aftermath
Not only does Clemson gets a much more established national championship run, they also managed to win for the ACC in the process. Let's entertain the following scenario, in order to explain it in better context.
Clemson 45 x Fresno State 3
1 (victory) + 0.4 (Mountain West Conference Factor) + 1.2 (45/35=1.2 score differential) + 0.25 (advancing to the quarter finals) = 2.85 conference points.
Clemson 28 x UCF 21
1 (victory) + 0.5 (AAC Conference Factor) + 0 (7/28 < 1, no points) + 0.5 (advancing to the semifinals) = 2 conference points.
Clemson 44 x Alabama 16
1 (victory) + 1 (SEC Conference Factor) + 0.5 (away team victory) + 5 (-28/7= -4 | 1+4 score differential) + 1 (advancing to the finals) = 8.5 conference points.
Clemson 21 x Georgia 17
1 (victory) + 1 (SEC Conference factor) + 0.5 (away team victory) + 1.57 (-4/7=-0.57 | 1+0.57 score differential) + 10 (winning championship) = 14.07 conference points.
Clemson not only wins the national championship, but managed to add 27.42 conference points to the ACC. They began the season with 90 points + 27.42 = 117.42. The SEC began the season with 100 points. Disregarding what the SEC teams won or lost for their conference in this simulation or what the other ACC teams scored as well, with this result alone the ACC would trump the SEC in the conference power rankings. Which means, Clemson next year, if they qualify for the post season, will now be vying for seeds 1 through 3 instead of 4 through 6. Of course, the SEC teams will most likely make deep runs in the tournament. In this fictitious setting, the semifinal matches were Georgia v Florida and Clemson v Alabama, which means that all 3 SEC teams would earn points for their conference along the way, however because they belong to a higher ranked conference, they don't earn as many points as Clemson would, but they do have some control however, by racking up the score and attempting to win more points through score differential. Could you imagine the amount of points a team like Buffalo would earn with every win if they make a deep run, or even win the tournament, being the team from the absolute lowest ranked conference? Yes, they will earn a lot of points for their conference, but they will be the sole team doing so, as opposed to teams with multiple participants who only earn so many points but now you have more than one team doing so. Also, this allows for a strong team belonging to a weak conference to have a shot at the championship. If a team belongs to a lower ranked conference that allows a single participant in the playoffs, they know they still have a chance if they beat out the 4 opponents they have in front of them, however unlikely it may be, they know what they have to do, instead of opting for the "win and pray" to see what the CFP overlords grants them in their infinite wisdom and generosity.
The Result
These are the benefits that have the most impact on the overall game of college football.
First and foremost, every game matters now. Regular season games matter even if you stumble in the first few games, and now every team is motivated to try and win out their conference (instead of praying for good rankings every Tuesday) in order to control their own destiny and enter the post season. Every single team, in every single conference knows exactly what they have to do in order to make it to the post season. Coaches, players, programs and fans will not quit halfway through the season because they already lost their shot at being ranked, now they have a clear goal and that is to win out their conference, or finish in the top 3 if you're in a higher ranked conference.
Second, ever since the CFP was established, bowl games have become irrelevant. Justified or not, Auburn felt like they got snubbed from a spot in the 2017 playoffs, and they can make a very good case they deserved to be in it, only to be placed in a no-win scenario against undefeated UCF who beat them in a now meaningless bowl game, regardless of having NY6 status. Not to mention that you are adding calendar days to practices and games to unpaid student athletes who have to juggle the rigors of final exams at the end of the semester, as well as deciding whether to play in said bowl game or not, potentially affecting their NFL prospect stock. They have to make a choice between being a team player, or looking out for their health and future to play a meaningless bowl game, for what? for pride? With this new post season, every game matters, not a single player will be skipping out when they know they have a chance at winning a national championship.
No more Tuesday ranking reveals. It's insulting to any sports fanatic that the position of their team is based heavily on the opinions of individuals. College football is the only sport in which you cannot win your way into a championship, as long as you are out of favor from those making the decisions. Every other sport has a clear path for even the minnows of the sporting world to win a championship, however difficult or unlikely, but at least it's clear and it's known what every single team has to do to reach the top. No more arguing whether overrated Notre Dame deserves a spot more than slow-start Ohio State. No more having to wonder if "America wants yet another Georgia v Alabama matchup."
NFL teams now have a much broader stage to look for talent and evaluate them based on meaningful games and how they perform against elite opposition. They get to evaluate players from all conferences to see how they perform to win out their conference, and how they respond to lopsided out of conference matchups in a playoff format instead of some meaningless game in September. And now more players have more of an incentive to play well, especially when they know they can earn their way to the national spotlight. Now, teams have that incentive of being the ones that brought X conference to supremacy, to relevance, or to be the team that knocked out the SEC or the ACC from their pedestal. The stakes are much higher, for every single conference, for every team in Div. 1.
Indirectly, TV ratings would improve. Now the playoffs mean something in every part of the country, or at least fans from every other conference because now they have a dog in the fight. ACC (or every conference) fans supporting the Mid American to knock out the SEC team in the tournament? Yes, better ratings.
And lastly, we are now providing more of a chance to this very talented, very exploited, very unpaid group of college students, who bring millions of dollars to the NCAA, TV networks, school programs, coaches, basically everyone but themselves or their families all while risking their lives, their health and their future in the process. Providing them a chance to shine in the brightest of stages, regardless if they are from a blue chip program, established long before anyone's time, or from an up and coming school program that can make a difference. It gives a coach, a school, a group of athletes, from a small program an opportunity to really shine in the national stage, not through handouts, or favorable opinion, but by having a fair chance and performing well against all odds, but at least the odds clearly stated to everyone.
It rewards consistency, by allowing a path for a team to make a deep run in the playoffs, as well as a bringing their conference to prominence in the rankings. The rules are known, very clearly, and everyone knows what they have to do to accomplish this. It allows for those who become complacent, lazy or just not as good as they once were, to suffer the consequences, and fall in said rankings. Not more biases in the rankings because this team or conference was once a force to be reckoned with.
Football is as American as it gets, but the college football system, has more in common with the very monarchy we went to war with to declare our independence from, than it does with the American freedom we have all come to love, enjoy and benefitted from. Because, in this country, it doesn't matter where you're from, who your ancestors were, what your past is, today you can work your way to success in America, so why not allow the most American of sports to do the same in the national stage?
It rewards consistency, by allowing a path for a team to make a deep run in the playoffs, as well as a bringing their conference to prominence in the rankings. The rules are known, very clearly, and everyone knows what they have to do to accomplish this. It allows for those who become complacent, lazy or just not as good as they once were, to suffer the consequences, and fall in said rankings. Not more biases in the rankings because this team or conference was once a force to be reckoned with.
Football is as American as it gets, but the college football system, has more in common with the very monarchy we went to war with to declare our independence from, than it does with the American freedom we have all come to love, enjoy and benefitted from. Because, in this country, it doesn't matter where you're from, who your ancestors were, what your past is, today you can work your way to success in America, so why not allow the most American of sports to do the same in the national stage?
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