The 2021 college football regular season has ended and once again the CFP have raised more questions than answers. Unfortunately, I find more and more fans that enjoy the current broken system, and of course it frustrates me. How will this broken system have any chance of being fixed when we keep tuning in week after week? Have the CFP cashed in on our addiction to chaos, like it's another dysfunctional reality show?
I'm not sure how much louder I can say it. This system is broken. Can we stop using words like "selecting," "allowing," or "choosing" when it comes to determining a champion? Subjectivity has no place in deciding a champion in any sport, but that's exactly what we currently have in college football. Frankly, it's un-American; we have an elitist system in which a powerful cabal, cartel, NILluminati, whatever you want to call them, decides who's in and out of favor based on ... what criteria? We have a system that rewards ... what? Past accomplishments? Business interests? Ratings? Confirmation bias? Pedigree? Roster? Strength of schedule? "Quality" wins or losses? It's insulting.
I can imagine what these overlords discuss when ranking teams every Tuesday.
"Team A would really beat Team B if they were at full strength, they just had a bad game ... They struggled against an unranked team, but really that opponent should've been ranked all along so we'll reward them as such ... Well, if these 2 were to play in a neutral field, Team A would win for sure."
These are all great hypotheticals ... for a sports pundit, but these conversations have no place in determining a champion.
Enough of this. Can we treat college football like it's a real sport? "But what if the wrong team gets in and wins it all?" So? College football happens every year, so a fluke year every once in a while won't be the end of the world. Besides, the NFC east is guaranteed at least one team in the playoffs every year and they suck, right? Yet 3 of the most memorable Super Bowls in recent history involve the Giants (twice) and the Eagles beating Tom Brady. Also, isn't it supposed to be an incredible feat when a Wild Card team wins it all? A Cinderella story? Not in college football.
Here's how we fix it.
Rank conferences 1-10. Independents join a conference or they won't participate. No divisions. No conference championships. No out-of-conference matches in the regular season. No committee. No bowl games. I'm sorry to destroy your century-old safety blanket but it's time to grow up and make room for something new.
Let's revisit the end of the 2021 regular season, taking in their record, minus the conference championship given that it's now irrelevant. Why is it irrelevant? Remember 2017? When Alabama got selected as the 4th seed in the playoffs despite not even making it to their own conference championship, yet their superior rival that year did play in the conference championship, but failed to get selected to the playoffs for losing said conference championship game? Yeah, let's do away with this game since it doesn't matter anymore.
SEC - 1. Georgia, 2. Alabama, 3. Ole Miss, Kentucky, Arkansas, TAMU, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Auburn, LSU, South Carolina, Florida, Vanderbilt
ACC - 4. Pittsburgh, 5. Wake Forest, 6. NC State, Clemson, Miami, Louisville, FSU, UNC, Syracuse, Boston College, Ga Tech, Duke
Big 10 - 7. Michigan, 8. Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Purdue, Penn State, Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, Indiana
PAC 12 - 9. Oregon, 10. Utah, Arizona State, Washington State, UCLA, Oregon State, Cal, USC, Washington, Stanford, Arizona
Big 12 - 11. Oklahoma State, Baylor, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Kansas State, WVU, Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas
AAC - 12. Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, ECU, Tulsa, SMU, Memphis, Navy, Temple, USF, Tulane
CUSA - 13. UTSA, Western Kentucky, UAB, Marshall, ODU, UNT, Middle Tennessee, UTEP, FAU, Charlotte, Rice, Souther Miss, LA Tech
Sun Belt - 14. Louisiana, App State, GA State, Coastal, Troy, Texas State, LA Monroe, GA Southern, South Alabama, Arkansas State
MAC - 15. Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Toledo, Miami Ohio, Ball State, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Akron
MW - 16. San Diego State, Utah State, Fresno State, Air Force, Nevada, Boise State, San Jose State, Hawaii, CO State, UNLV, New Mexico
Yes, the teams in bold would be the teams qualifying for the CFP. You're catching on. I never really understood the "at-large" term, and this way I won't have to learn what it means. This new approach is way more streamlined and clearer for every team; they now knows what they have to do to qualify (what a grown up word) for the post season, regardless how "weak" a conference they may belong to. Yes, you should be rewarded by winning your conference in the regular season and we should see how said champion stacks against other champions. Your only competitors are your conference rivals. You beat them, you enter the post season and earn the right to compete outside your conference. Of course, not every conference has the same strength, which is why the stronger conferences allow their second and even their third places to qualify, as is the case for the SEC and ACC. Plus they're also vying for the lowest seeds in the tournament and would host their first playoff team. Tougher opposition, greater rewards. Is this fair? Yes, yes it is. Conferences can change in strength based on what their teams do and how their programs grow. To change the conference pecking order go read the "math part" from my Jan 2019 post, it's rather lengthy, but thorough.
What would a playoff look like in 2021?
Again, we are rewarding teams that have bested comparable competition within their own conference and weighed them in the playoffs by seeding them according to conference strength. My previous entry shows how the conference strengths can change based on their members' performance in the tournament. With the introduction of NIL we essentially have free agency in college football, where players make moves based on payouts, and I can respect that, since only 1% of these players will have an opportunity to enter the NFL and get financially rewarded for their talents. But since we're establishing a free agency period in college football, how about we introduce "real chance at winning a championship" as a factor for players entering the transfer portal? There are some players who will not transfer, or at least won't transfer solely because of financial incentives. By setting clear obtainable rules for every team in every conference, it adds another layer to recruiting and the transfer window. ESPN and, to some extent, the NFL have created a self-fulling prophecy in which by constantly stating that the "best teams" and the "best NFL talent" comes from a very limited number of teams, that very same top talent coming into college football will undoubtedly aim to play for these teams. This gap will only be exacerbated the longer the committee continues to exist and select teams subjectively.
This new playoffs qualification system levels the playing field a lot more. Non-Power 5 teams now have a bargaining chip to negotiate and attract 4 and 5 star recruits. Teams that do not benefit from having 150-year old programs don't have to wait a century to be able to compete against the "elites" to attract top talent and have a shot at a national championship. At the very least they are able to earn themselves a playoff spot and compare how they stack against these college football behemoths in a game that matters with a national title on the line, as opposed to a pathetic mid-September routing with zero stakes.
This season, I attended my first ever non-alma mater college football game, Texas v Rice. Texas steamrolled Rice, we left by halftime. Mostly because I had no dog in the fight, but in part because this game was inconsequential. Texas had no shot at being ranked top 4 and Rice belongs to an out-of-favor conference, in the eyes of the committee. Why are we allowing this? Why are these irrelevant games played? Scheduled by a school whose team and, quite possibly, coaching staff might be completely different by the time they actually get to play in some cases. Sounded like a great idea at the time, maybe, but when this game actually takes place, most people will wonder why these games were scheduled in the first place.
If my proposed playoffs were real, and the conference pecking order remains unchanged, the only way that Texas and Rice would ever meet in the future would be if they each win their conference in the same year, enter the playoffs as the 11 and 13 seed respectively and meet in the final. However unlike this scenario is, this game would have far more weight and consequence than upholding a game series. I get it, this "rivalry" has been around longer than any of us have been alive, but is it really a rivalry? Texas leads it 74-21, more than triple the victories over Rice. Is nostalgia and tradition more important than competition and merit? No. Also, with this new system, Texas would've never entertained the idea of leaving the Big 12 for the SEC. From their point of view, is it easier to focus on winning the Big 12, or do your best to finish 3rd at the very least in the SEC to qualify for the postseason? Or try to win-and-pray your way into being a top 4 team by the end of the season with the current CFP procedures?
Frankly, if history is any indication, any Texas victory will mean a lot in the eyes of the committee. We have seen Texas being ranked every other week following a win after a loss. The Texas name still has value in the eyes of the committee who love nostalgia and are repulsed by progress. Moving to the SEC will most likely add even more weight to any victories they can collect on even given year, and I will not be surprised with Texas being the first 2 or 3-loss semifinalist in the not-so-distant future if this unnatural order remains.
Should this matter? No.
On a level playing field where you play in-conference opponents only, who in theory are similar opponents, an undefeated season should be a rarity. Which means that lack of perfection needs to be accepted. Once every team knows that a playoff spot is within their grasp, recruiting will tun upside down and you'll see talent being spread across the country and all conferences. Qualification into the post season needs to be a relative overcoming of similar opposition. Not to beat a dead horse, but the NFC east struggles to produce "dominant teams" yet one team will qualify for the playoffs, what they do beyond there is in their hands, as it should be. Every sport has managed to tweak and perfect their post season, and in my opinion, there's no better way to improve the college football playoffs unless you open the competition to all conferences with clear objectives each team must meet in order to earn their way to the playoffs.
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